Viscarra Rossel, R. A., Zhang, M., Behrens, T., & Webster, R. (2024). A warming climate will make Australian soil a net emitter of atmospheric CO2. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 79.

The study predicts that Australian soils will shift from a carbon sink to a net emitter of CO2 between 2010 and 2100, with significant losses particularly between 2020-2045 and 2070-2100. Although croplands may see slight carbon gains, these are insufficient to counteract the greater losses in rangelands and coastal regions. Effective land management and policy interventions are crucial to mitigate these soil carbon losses.

Highlights

  • The study uses the RothC model to predict changes in soil organic carbon (C) stocks in Australia from 2010 to 2100.
  • The study examines three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and their impacts on soil carbon stocks.
  • The study highlights the varying impacts of climate change on different regions of Australia.
  • The findings underscore the importance of effective land management and policy interventions to mitigate soil carbon losses.
Predicted median carbon inputs (C inputs) and soil organic C from 2010 to 2100